Developing countries have to concentrate efforts on developing own potential of economic growth along with strengthening mechanisms, recently published World Bank Report "Global economic prospects" reads.
On January 24, 2013, Tashkent Institute of Forecasting and Macro-economic Researches hosted presentation of this report.
At the presentation on "Global economic prospects: assuring growth over the medium term" Director at World Bank Prospective Development Estimation Group Hans Timmer noted that WB prepares report on global development two times a year. Main part of it is the first 25 pages, it contains appendix for product market, financial flow, exchange rate and regional market.
According to the WB last estimations, world GDP growth in 2012 made up 2.3%, though in June of last year the growth was forecasted at the level of 2.5%. It is anticipated that in 2013 the world growth rate will not practically change and will make up 2.4%, and then it will progressively increase up to 3.1%, in 2014, 3.3% in 2015.
Analysis shows that GDP of developing countries grew up to 5.1% and should increase by 5.5% in 2013, by 5.7% in 2014 and by 5.8% in 2015. Growth estimation in countries with high level of income was overviewed towards fall comparing to earlier forecasts and make up 1.3% in 2012 and 2013 with following rise by 2.0% in 2014 and 2.3 in 2015.
Growth in countries of Euro Area is forecasted to resume to positive level only in 2014. And 2013 it is expected GDP decrease by 0.1%, after which it will grow to 0.9% in 2014 and to 1.4% in 2015. The volume of total growth rate of world trade for products and services increased 3.5% only in 2012, and it is anticipated to achieve 6.0% in 2013 and 7.0% in 2015.
Reviewing forecasts along European and Central Asian regions which include CIS countries, Hans Timmer noted that the lowest growth rate in the region was examined in 2012. According to estimations, GDP growth rate in European and Central Asian regions rapidly decreased to 3% in 2012 comparing to 5.6% in 2011 while the region faced serious severities among of which: low level of foreign market, cutting-off long-term financing by European banks, summer drought, as well as inflationary pressure.
Analytics believe that in 2013 GDP growth in European and Central Asian regions will grow up to 3.6%. However, report authors underline that prospects in European and Central Asian regions mainly depend on solutions of issues related with budget deficit, unemployment and inflation.
In his speech Director at the World Bank Prospective Development Estimation Group emphasized that it is important not to forget about risks even when all corresponding forecasts are done. By having fiscal buffer and stable monetary system, always need to be ready to respond to unexpected crisis situations, he noted.
During the meeting head of Project for macro-economic analysis and forecasting of the Institute for Forecasting and Macro-Economic Researches Sergey Chepel presented in his speech main arguments to the reports "Global Economic Prospects".
- First argument which is urgent to our country is that world economy is not recovered yet from the consequences of financial crisis, and it will be hard fully resume its positions in nearest 2-3 years. What are the risks to the stable development of national economy of Uzbekistan in this situation? In our institute, we work out econometric and macro-economic models for the forecasting and analysis, also we have export models. It is multi-factor and allows to record concrete investment of foreign economic factors into prospects of development and export potential. We study export issues thoroughly including from the side of foreign demand. We underline main trade partners of Uzbekistan which have big share of export. We also research issues related with influence of world prices, meaning that effects of world condition to our national export. As a whole, we can make conclusion that growth rate of world economy nearest future will be temperate, and it means that in medium-term prospects we need additional measures on stimulating domestic demands, mainly by way of creating job places, - Sergey Chepel has said.
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